The recent revelations of a International Energy Administration whistleblower that the IEA may have distorted crucial oil forecasts under extreme U.S. pressure is, if true (and whistleblowers hardly ever step forward to advance their careers), a slow-burning thermonuclear surge on future global oil production. The Bush administration's actions in pressing the IEA to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the possibilities of discovering new reserves have the possible to toss governments' long-term preparation into mayhem.

Whatever the reality, rising long term global demands appear certain to overtake production in the next years, especially given the high and increasing costs of developing brand-new super-fields such as Kazakhstan's overseas Kashagan and Brazil's southern Atlantic Jupiter and Carioca fields, which will require billions in financial investments before their very first barrels of oil are produced.

In such a situation, additives and replacements such as biofuels will play an ever-increasing role by extending beleaguered production quotas. As market forces and increasing prices drive this technology to the forefront, one of the richest potential production locations has actually been completely neglected by financiers up to now - Central Asia. Formerly the USSR's cotton "plantation," the area is poised to become a significant player in the production of biofuels if adequate foreign investment can be acquired. Unlike Brazil, where biofuel is made mainly from sugarcane, or the United States, where it is primarily distilled from corn, Central Asia's ace resource is an indigenous plant, Camelina sativa.

Of the former Soviet Caucasian and Central Asian republics, those clustered around the coasts of the Caspian, Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have actually seen their economies boom since of record-high energy prices, while Turkmenistan is waiting in the wings as an increasing manufacturer of natural gas.

Farther to the east, in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, geographical isolation and fairly little hydrocarbon resources relative to their Western Caspian next-door neighbors have mainly hindered their ability to capitalize rising global energy demands up to now. Mountainous Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan remain mostly reliant for their electrical requirements on their Soviet-era hydroelectric infrastructure, however their increased need to produce winter season electrical power has resulted in autumnal and winter water discharges, in turn badly affecting the agriculture of their western downstream next-door neighbors Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

What these three downstream countries do have however is a Soviet-era legacy of agricultural production, which in Uzbekistan's and Turkmenistan case was mainly directed towards cotton production, while Kazakhstan, beginning in the 1950s with Khrushchev's "Virgin Lands" programs, has actually ended up being a significant manufacturer of wheat. Based upon my conversations with Central Asian federal government officials, offered the thirsty needs of cotton monoculture, foreign propositions to diversify agrarian production towards biofuel would have terrific appeal in Astana, Ashgabat and Tashkent and to a lesser extent Astana for those hardy financiers ready to bank on the future, specifically as a plant native to the region has currently proven itself in trials.

Known in the West as incorrect flax, wild flax, linseed dodder, German sesame and Siberian oilseed, camelina is bring in increased clinical interest for its oleaginous qualities, with a number of European and American business currently investigating how to produce it in commercial quantities for biofuel. In January Japan Airlines undertook a historic test flight using camelina-based bio-jet fuel, becoming the very first Asian provider to explore flying on fuel derived from sustainable feedstocks throughout a one-hour presentation flight from Tokyo's Haneda Airport. The test was the conclusion of a 12-month assessment of camelina's functional performance ability and potential industrial viability.

As an alternative energy source, camelina has much to advise it. It has a high oil content low in saturated fat. In contrast to Central Asia's thirsty "king cotton," camelina is drought-resistant and unsusceptible to spring freezing, needs less fertilizer and herbicides, and can be utilized as a rotation crop with wheat, which would make it of specific interest in Kazakhstan, now Central Asia's major wheat exporter. Another bonus offer of camelina is its tolerance of poorer, less fertile conditions. An acre planted with camelina can produce approximately 100 gallons of oil and when planted in rotation with wheat, camelina can increase wheat production by 15 percent. A ton (1000 kg) of camelina will include 350 kg of oil, of which pushing can extract 250 kg. Nothing in camelina production is wasted as after processing, the plant's particles can be used for animals silage. Camelina silage has a particularly appealing concentration of omega-3 fats that make it an especially great animals feed prospect that is just now gaining acknowledgment in the U.S. and Canada. Camelina is fast growing, produces its own natural herbicide (allelopathy) and competes well versus weeds when an even crop is established. According to Britain's Bangor University's Centre for Alternative Land Use, "Camelina could be a perfect low-input crop appropriate for bio-diesel production, due to its lower requirements for nitrogen fertilizer than oilseed rape."

Camelina, a branch of the mustard family, is to both Europe and Central Asia and hardly a brand-new crop on the scene: archaeological proof indicates it has actually been cultivated in Europe for a minimum of three millennia to produce both grease and animal fodder.

Field trials of production in Montana, presently the center of U.S. camelina research, revealed a vast array of results of 330-1,700 pounds of seed per acre, with oil content differing in between 29 and 40%. Optimal seeding rates have been identified to be in the 6-8 pound per acre range, as the seeds' little size of 400,000 seeds per lb can develop problems in germination to attain an ideal plant density of around 9 plants per sq. ft.

Camelina's capacity could allow Uzbekistan to begin breaking out of its most dolorous tradition, the imposition of a cotton monoculture that has distorted the nation's attempts at agrarian reform considering that achieving self-reliance in 1991. Beginning in the late 19th century, the Russian federal government identified that Central Asia would become its cotton plantation to feed Moscow's growing textile market. The process was accelerated under the Soviets. While Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan were also bought by Moscow to plant cotton, Uzbekistan in specific was singled out to produce "white gold."

By the end of the 1930s the Soviet Union had actually ended up being self-dependent in cotton; five years later it had ended up being a significant exporter of cotton, producing more than one-fifth of the world's production, focused in Uzbekistan, which produced 70 percent of the Soviet Union's output.

Try as it might to diversify, in the lack of alternatives Tashkent stays wedded to cotton, producing about 3.6 million heaps annually, which brings in more than $1 billion while constituting roughly 60 percent of the nation's difficult currency earnings.

Beginning in the mid-1960s the Soviet government's instructions for Central Asian cotton production mostly bankrupted the region's scarcest resource, water. Cotton utilizes about 3.5 acre feet of water per acre of plants, leading Soviet organizers to divert ever-increasing volumes of water from the region's 2 primary rivers, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, into inefficient watering canals, resulting in the remarkable shrinkage of the rivers' final location, the Aral Sea. The Aral, when the world's fourth-largest inland sea with an area of 26,000 square miles, has actually shrunk to one-quarter its original size in among the 20th century's worst environmental catastrophes.

And now, the dollars and cents. Dr. Bill Schillinger at Washington State University just recently explained camelina's service design to Capital Press as: "At 1,400 pounds per acre at 16 cents a pound, camelina would generate $224 per acre; 28-bushel white wheat at $8.23 per bushel would garner $230."

Central Asia has the land, the farms, the watering infrastructure and a modest wage scale in contrast to America or Europe - all that's missing out on is the foreign financial investment. U.S. investors have the money and access to the competence of America's land grant universities. What is particular is that biofuel's market share will grow with time; less certain is who will gain the advantages of developing it as a feasible concern in Central Asia.

If the recent past is anything to go by it is unlikely to be American and European financiers, fixated as they are on Caspian oil and gas.

But while the Japanese flight experiments indicate Asian interest, American investors have the academic competence, if they want to follow the Silk Road into establishing a brand-new market. Certainly anything that reduces water usage and pesticides, diversifies crop production and enhances the great deal of their agrarian population will receive most careful factor to consider from Central Asia's federal governments, and farming and vegetable oil processing plants are not just more affordable than pipelines, they can be developed faster.

And jatropha's biofuel capacity? Another story for another time.